EARLY EVENING POST:  AUGUST 2,  2008

Posted at 7:19 p.m. ET

BARONE

It's always a pleasure to read an analysis by Michael Barone because he knows so much. He's one of the most knowledgeable political writers we have, and one of the most measured.

Here he examines the presidential race, and compares it with past examples.  He has refreshing and surprising insights.  He writes about how pundits thought Obama's trip would bounce him upward, that the bounce bounced the other way, but that Obama can still claim some foreign-policy points, with or without bounce.  However, Barone says...

...the basic dynamics of the race haven't changed. Obama appears to have a small lead. But he doesn't come close to maximizing the Democratic vote. And there is some evidence that the balance of enthusiasm has shifted and that young people -- who seemed to turn out and vote for Obama in unusually high numbers in the primaries and caucuses -- are no long so enthusiastic about him.

Rule #1 of politics:  Never depend on the "youth" vote.

The first bit of evidence comes from the July 10-13 ABC/Washington Post poll. It asked registered voters if they were "certain" to vote. Only 46 percent of voters under 30 said they were -- substantially lower than the 66 percent who said so in the ABC/Washington Post poll taken Feb. 28-March 2, at a time when Obama was enjoying a string of primary and caucus victories and before the sermons of the Rev. Jeremiah Wright were circulated on youtube.com on March 13.

And...

The 46 percent of young voters saying in July they were certain to vote was far lower than the 79 percent of 65 and over voters who said they were.

It's obvious that Barone reads beyond the first three lines of poll results.  We are the beneficiaries. 

The second bit of evidence comes from the Gallup/USAToday poll taken July 25-27. This poll showed that when you narrowed the base of respondents down from registered voters to likely voters, John McCain was ahead 49 percent to 45 percent.

As they say, the only poll that counts is the one on election day.  It's decided by voters who vote, not "registered voters."

These poll results suggest that something -- the rantings of the Rev. Wright or Obama's skinbacks on issues like Iraq and terrorist surveillance -- has dampened enthusiasm for him, particularly among the young. The hope that his candidacy would benefit from a historically unprecedented turnout of young voters seems more audacious than it did a short time ago.

The American people have a remarkable knack for giving candidates a sober second look, with an emphasis on "sober."  I suspect that's what's happening.

But Barone warns against overconfidence, no matter its origin:

Nothing about an election is harder to predict than turnout, and experience shows that the balance of enthusiasm can change abruptly and in unpredicted ways. The poll numbers examined here are of course not the final word, or anything close to it, and this campaign could take many twists and turns before it is over.

The race is just beginning.  McCain can win it, especially as Obama looks weaker and weaker.  We'll know a bit more than three months from now.  Yes, election day is that close.

August 2, 2008.      Permalink          

MID-AFTERNOON POST:  AUGUST 2,  2008

Posted at 2:36 p.m. ET

TRACKERS

Both trackers are now out for today.  No change from yesterday.  Rasmussen has Obama up one, Gallup has a tie.

The next week of polling will be fascinating.  Obama has lost ground, but McCain hasn't necessarily gained.  Will there be any momentum for anyone in the days ahead?  It's critical that McCain start to add points.  He must put Obama on the defensive, where Obama tends to perform poorly.

Democratic convention will be August 25-28 in Denver.

Republican convention will be September 1-4 in Minneapolis-St. Paul.

Within a month the real race will be on, with both v.p. candidates chosen.

August 2, 2008.      Permalink          

LATER MORNING POST:  AUGUST 2,  2008

Posted at 11:28 a.m. ET

IRAN IS SILENT

Iran was given until today to respond to the latest Western offer to hold back on further sanctions in exchange for Iran's suspension of uranium enrichment.  Actually, Iranian officials have already said, repeatedly, that they'll not suspend their nuclear program.  But, in the world of diplomacy - not the real world - that doesn't mean much until they give a "formal" response, which they haven't done.   Not to worry, though.  European diplomats, for whom success is a dirty word, tell us they're not alarmed.  They never are:

A European Union official said Saturday that EU foreign policy chief Javier Solana's office has not yet received an answer from Iran to initiatives offered by six world powers in the standoff over Teheran's nuclear ambitions. But he said a reply was expected "in the coming days" after the weekend deadline.

The official, who spoke on condition of anonymity because of the sensitivity of the issue, said EU nations and diplomats were not too concerned about Teheran's adherence to the exact deadline - but were keen for Iran to come back with a concrete reply that could form the basis of further negotiations.

Ah so keen.  So very keen.  They've been keen for six years, and what has their keenness gotten them, or us?  Nada.

Germany's foreign minister urged Iran to stop playing for time and deliver a "clear answer" to the offers, according to an interview released Saturday.

"I appeal again to the Iranian side no longer to play for time, but to give us a usable answer to our offers: Stop dallying," Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier was quoted as saying in an interview with the weekly Der Spiegel.

Steinmeier said he expected "a clear signal for a mutual freeze: We would freeze our sanctions efforts and Iran the development of its centrifuges. This is a clear offer that deserves a clear answer, and soon."

In the interview with Der Spiegel, Steinmeier was quoted as saying "it would be negligent" for Iran "not to use the current opportunity."

Asked what would happen if Iran continues to hedge, Steinmeier replied that "we would then have to further increase pressure via sanctions," according to the report.

Oh come on.  We've learned in the last week that Germany gave approval for a major natural gas deal with Iran.  The money is flowing, and the diplomats are winning Oscars for their acting. 

So why should Iran cooperate?  They have a lame-duck president in Washington who's under the thumb of his father's crowd, whose motto seems to be, "Solve no problem."  Condi is mush.  And they have a Democratic candidate for president who, in an unguarded moment, declared that Iran is not a threat.  Of course, he modified that for the cameras.

So why should Iran knuckle under?  No one is stopping them.  Deals are being made.  The Iranian program continues.

August 2,  2008.      Permalink          

SNIPPET: 

First tracker is out today.  Rasmussen still has Obama up one point.  But Ras also stresses that McCain has never held the lead - not once - since Obama sewed up the Democratic nomination. 

Any post-trip Obama bounce is gone; but it's possible that any backlash against Obama is also gone.  We await the next Gallup tracker.

SNIPPET:

Headline from the Financial Times:  "Democrats anxious for Obama to widen lead"

What lead?  Do these Dems read anything but the Daily Kos?  Obama is down to half a point in the trackers.  It's a dead heat.

SATURDAY:  AUGUST 2,  2008

Posted at 8:38 a.m. ET

THE RACE RACE CONTINUES

Obama should learn the lesson.  This is what happens when you inject race into the campaign. 

SPRINGFIELD, Ill. - Democratic presidential candidate Barack Obama opposes offering reparations to the descendants of slaves, putting him at odds with some black groups and leaders.

The man with a serious chance to become the nation's first black president argues that government should instead combat the legacy of slavery by improving schools, health care and the economy for all.

"I have said in the past — and I'll repeat again — that the best reparations we can provide are good schools in the inner city and jobs for people who are unemployed," the Illinois Democrat said recently.

Some two dozen members of Congress are co-sponsors of legislation to create a commission that would study reparations — that is, payments and programs to make up for the damage done by slavery.

The National Association for the Advancement of Colored People supports the legislation, too. Cities around the country, including Obama's home of Chicago, have endorsed the idea, and so has a major union, the American Federation of State, County and Municipal Employees.

The idea that Obama even has to discuss reparations is damaging to him.  It emphasizes underlying, contentious issues that he can do without.

Reparations are an awful idea.  There were reparations after the Nazi holocaust, but they went directly to survivors or immediate families.  To pay reparations for the ugly institution of slavery, almost a century and a half after its demise, simply won't play with the American people.  Also, how do you factor in all the social programs, with their cost in the billions, for people affected by discrimination?  Further, what do you say to groups that, while not enslaved, were subjected to other forms of bigotry? 

Obama is taking the right stand, but he's placed in an awkward, exposed position.  He hasn't had a great week.

August 2,  2008.      Permalink          

THE FUN FACTOR

You know you're doing well in politics when you're having fun.  The Republican Party - which sometimes seems to pride itself on dullness - is suddenly having fun.  We reported yesterday on the revolt in the House over gas prices.  Here's more, from Fox:

House Republicans, hours after Democrats took their last vote before their five-week August recess, stormed the empty House chamber, ordered up some pizzas, hooted and hollered, and did their best to keep the cameras on them so they could call attention to what they said was irresponsibility on Democrats' part for not passing new energy legislation.

After more than five hours, the event came to an end shortly after the Capitol closed to the public around 4:30 p.m Friday.

"I just saw one of the Democrats interviewed on television. The question was, if oil was $10 a gallon and you knew exactly where to get it in Alaska or on the coast, would you drill there, and there was no answer," House Minority Whip Roy Blunt, of Missouri, said before a last-minute gathering before reporters late Friday.

Good.  Rub it in.  Keep it up. 

Earlier, Rep. Mike Pence, R-Ind., told FOX News: "Many of us speaking on the floor today, including the Republican leadership, believe the president of the United States should call this congress back into session immediately under Article II of the Constitution, and demand that this Congress deal with the issue of energy independence."

No word from the White House had yet filtered down, however.

Truman did it to the GOP, with great effect, in 1948.  Come on, Mr. President.  Do it, even if Condi tells you it might offend some Saudi prince.  Those are your father's friends, not yours.

Inside the House chamber, the microphones were off, the House had stopped TV feeds to C-Span and the lights dimmed after the pre-noon vote to adjourn for the August recess. That didn't deter Republicans, who one after another rose to demand that Congress stay in session until it does something about high gas prices.

Unlike a normal session where the rules of decorum are strictly enforced, GOP lawmakers and their aides who filled the chamber clapped, chanted, gave standing ovations and booed the Democrats.

"Madame Speaker, where art thou?" shouted out Rep. Ted Poe, R-Texas, in a glancing rhetorical shot at House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif. "Where oh where has Congress gone?"

It was a rare treat for tourists. Republicans invited many, in their shorts and sandals, into the chamber, usually strictly off-limits, to better hear the revivalist-like speeches.

Pence, one of the organizers of the protest, said up to 40 of his fellow Republicans were prepared to keep the talk-in going. "I am prepared to stay here as long as we can," he said.

As FDR said, "I love it, I love it, I love it."

Okay, Republicans, now run with the issue.  John McCain should do another Truman, and whistlestop throughout this country.   He can win this.

August 2, 2008.      Permalink